So what is2012 going to bring to IT? For about a decade I have predicted the growth ofwhat we now call cloud computing. After some false starts, hiccups, unrealisticexpectations, disillusionments and concerns about safety and what have you not,it is finally coming. In 2011 cloud computing was on the evening news and inall the papers.
Of course, Ican repeat my prediction of the coming of age of cloud computing. But thenumbers speak for themselves, so I don’t have to. Instead, it is moreinteresting to look at the inevitability of cloud computing.
In his book”What technology wants” Kevin Kelly (co-founder of Wired magazine), unfoldsthe theory that there is an inevitable progress in the development oftechnology. According to him it is almost a law that technology waits to beinvented. Each technological development paves the way for the next step. Oncethe amount of digital memory that fits into a small box is big enough for amusic collection, inevitably something like the iPod is invented. This often happenssimultaneously in multiple places. By the time nearly everyone has internetaccess, and servers are so powerful that it is a waste to use them for only onecustomer, it is a natural consequence that something like “software as aservice” is invented.
Theinevitability of invention is often followed by the inevitability of usage.Any technology that is sufficiently useful and affordable can hardly be denied.Indeed, society will often become dependent on it. Take cars for example, orthe Internet. We can hardly live without them. And the older the technology,the stronger this effect is. Look at the wheel and agriculture. Undoing theseinventions is totally impossible, especially with the current world population.All we can do is regulate it a bit.
We can lookat cloud computing in the same light. Is it useful and affordable enough? I thinkso. Can we do without it? We can right now, but not for long.